99 teams, 12 tiers and a whole lot of projections for March hoops

While it’s fun to believe that every men’s college basketball team in America has a chance to win a national title and make a run in March, we all know that’s not true. Yet, the 68-team field in the NCAA tournament offers participants from every league in America a shot. That welcoming vibe of the sport’s most important postseason event is what captivates the country for three weeks every year.

The number of teams in Division I men’s college hoops is still a lot to digest (currently at 364), though. To help everyone out, ESPN’s Myron Medcalf and Jeff Borzello have separated a chunk of them into tiers. Some of these programs can survive the chaos of March and win the national title. We (mostly) know who those are. Then there are the squads that deserve more cautious projections. What about those sleepers and Cinderellas? They’re here, too.

Here’s your primer on 99 teams that might — or might not — have a postseason run in them this season.

Jump to:
The locks | Final Four contenders | Can go dancing | Potential bid thiefs | Mystery teams | Familiar names | Two outliers | Cinderellas | Sleepers

Tier I: National championship favorites

Kansas Jayhawks
Alabama Crimson Tide
UConn Huskies

These teams are a cut above the rest. Kansas and Alabama have the most loaded rosters in America, while UConn deserves the benefit of the doubt after winning back-to-back national championships.

The Jayhawks were the preseason No. 1 team a year ago but finished with the worst overall record and worst Big 12 record since coach Bill Self arrived in Lawrence. He was motivated not to let that happen again, dipping into the portal and landing three immediate-impact transfers: AJ Storr (Wisconsin), Zeke Mayo (South Dakota State) and Rylan Griffen (Alabama). He also brought back three starters: All-American Hunter Dickinson, K.J. Adams Jr. and Dajuan Harris Jr. The Jayhawks have everything on their roster: size, experience, perimeter shooting, playmakers and defense. Self won’t allow two down seasons in a row.

Alabama broke through and reached the program’s first Final Four last season after two Sweet 16 appearances in the previous three campaigns. The talent is there this season to win the whole thing. Mark Sears is a preseason All-American, while Grant Nelson, Latrell Wrightsell Jr. and Jarin Stevenson all played key roles on that Final Four team. Coach Nate Oats also landed an elite incoming class led by transfers Chris Youngblood (South Florida), Clifford Omoruyi (Rutgers), Aden Holloway (Auburn) and five-star freshman Derrion Reid. Keep an eye on freshman point guard Labaron Philon, too.

And then there is the reigning champion. On paper, UConn isn’t quite as loaded as Kansas and Alabama. That tends to happen when a team sees four players selected in the NBA draft. But coach Dan Hurley is back after turning down the Lakers. Alex Karaban is ready to level up and become the team’s go-to guy, and top-10 recruit Liam McNeeley looks every bit of a draft lottery pick. Samson Johnson and Tarris Reed Jr. are enough down low. Hassan Diarra is a battle-tested point guard. The keys for the Huskies will be whether last season’s role players — Solo Ball, Jaylin Stewart, Jayden Ross — develop, and whether transfer Aidan Mahaney can be a difference-maker. — Jeff Borzello

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Tier II: Final Four contenders

Houston Cougars
Gonzaga Bulldogs
Duke Blue Devils
Baylor Bears
Iowa State Cyclones
Arizona Wildcats
Auburn Tigers

The gap between this group and Tier 1 seems smaller than it has been in past years. There’s definitely a case for every team in this group to move up.

Let’s start with the most intriguing team in the country: Five-star recruit Cooper Flagg is now the leader of a Duke squad that brings back veterans Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster. But there’s also buzz about freshmen Kon Knueppel and Khaman Maluach.

Houston coach Kelvin Sampson is the most consistent coach in this group — and perhaps this entire list. He has won 97 games over the past three seasons alone. And with L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and J’Wan Roberts returning, the Cougars — the No. 1 team in KenPom’s preseason rankings — can compete with any team in the country.

They could face a threat from Baylor, and not just in the Big 12, if coach Scott Drew can find balance with both Jeremy Roach and VJ Edgecombe in the backcourt.

Star power also matters at this level. It’s difficult to make a Final Four run without it. Which is why the other teams in this group are optimistic about their chances, too. They have potential difference-makers in contentious NCAA tournament games, where every possession counts.

Iowa State‘s Tamin Lipsey, Gonzaga‘s Graham Ike, Auburn‘s Johni Broome and Arizona‘s Caleb Love were all members of an AP All-America squad or an honorable mention last season. They’ve all returned to their respective schools — allowing those teams to make a run to San Antonio. — Myron Medcalf

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Tier III: Second-weekend threats

North Carolina Tar Heels
Arkansas Razorbacks
Texas A&M Aggies
Tennessee Volunteers
Creighton Bluejays
Ole Miss Rebels
Marquette Golden Eagles
Purdue Boilermakers
Kentucky Wildcats
Cincinnati Bearcats
Texas Longhorns
Indiana Hoosiers

There are some incredible storylines among this group.

Several teams had to replace All-America-caliber players — and their ability to do so effectively will determine their fate this season.

At the top of the list is Purdue, which begins the post-Zach Edey era. Coach Matt Painter has found high-level big men with relative ease throughout his career, but replacing the back-to-back Wooden Award winner is a different test. Tyler Kolek is gone from Marquette. If Kam Jones can continue his prolific scoring and shooting while also taking over playmaking duties, he could be the Big East Player of the Year — and Marquette won’t miss a beat.

Tennessee got only one year of Dalton Knecht, but coach Rick Barnes is hoping Chaz Lanier (North Florida) or Darlinstone Dubar (Hofstra) can be another transfer portal gem. Creighton lost Baylor Scheierman and Trey Alexander but added Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech) and Jamiya Neal (Arizona State), while bringing back elite two-way big man Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Armando Bacot was an anchor down low for North Carolina for years, but now coach Hubert Davis needs to find someone else to provide balance for Wooden Award favorite RJ Davis.

New coaches were the theme of the season at Arkansas and Kentucky, with John Calipari leaving Lexington for Fayetteville. Calipari took three Kentucky players and three Kentucky signees with him to Arkansas, also adding top-tier transfers Johnell Davis (Florida Atlantic) and Jonas Aidoo (Tennessee). He was ultimately replaced at Kentucky by Mark Pope, who’s bringing dramatic change to the Wildcats. Out are the one-and-done five-star prospects in Lexington; in is a veteran-laden, up-tempo, 3-point-happy system. There are plenty of proven college players on this roster, led by Jaxson Robinson, who followed Pope from BYU.

Meanwhile, Indiana is one of the most fascinating teams in the country. Mike Woodson is clearly entering a pivotal season for his future, but — likely with that in mind — landed one of the best portal classes in the country, led by Oumar Ballo (Arizona), Myles Rice (Washington State) and Kanaan Carlyle (Stanford). The Hoosiers didn’t play last postseason but returned starters Malik Reneau, Mackenzie Mgbako and Trey Galloway. Is there enough shooting? Can Ballo and Reneau play together? There won’t be a dull moment in Bloomington. — Borzello

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Tier IV: Can win a tournament game

UCLA Bruins
Florida Gators
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Oregon Ducks
Maryland Terrapins
Xavier Musketeers
Kansas State Wildcats
St. John’s Red Storm
Providence Friars
Louisville Cardinals
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
BYU Cougars
Saint Louis Billikens
Illinois Fighting Illini
Ohio State Buckeyes

This is where it all gets interesting. Because once these teams advance to the second round? Anything can happen.

With Airious Bailey and Dylan Harper, Rutgers might boast two of the top-three NBA draft picks. It’s difficult to bet against such a star duo. But they’ll have to get through the Big Ten, including new member UCLA. Coach Mick Cronin says he believes USC transfer Kobe Johnson (brother of Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson) can play at the next level, and with McDonald’s All American guard Trent Perry, the Bruins have the tools.

Two years ago, coach Jerome Tang led Kansas State to the Elite Eight with standout transfers. Dug McDaniel and Coleman Hawkins now lead a crew of nine new faces in Manhattan that need to build chemistry to repeat that run. Saint Louis faces the same question, as former Indiana State coach Josh Schertz and star Robbie Avila hope to build on their run with the Sycamores to the NIT title game and get into the NCAA tournament in their first year at their new school.

The rest of this group also has incredible potential. Now the permanent coach at Ohio State, Jake Diebler has a solid roster in Columbus. Xavier‘s Zach Freemantle is healthy for the first time in two years. Wake Forest star Hunter Sallis could be an All-American. It just all needs to click within these teams. — Medcalf

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Tier V: Dangerous bubble teams

Michigan State Spartans
Miami Hurricanes
Utah State Aggies
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Boise State Broncos
Saint Mary’s Gaels
VCU Rams
Clemson Tigers
Pittsburgh Panthers
Saint Joseph’s Hawks

This tier has a little bit of everything: from power conference programs looking to get back in the national discussion, to mid-major programs hoping to go dancing, to a couple of sleeper teams.

Let’s start with a couple of the first category, Michigan State and Miami. Neither lived up to expectations last season. Michigan State was picked No. 4 in the preseason AP poll, even garnering a first-place vote. Miami was coming off a Final Four run in 2023 and was ranked No. 13 in the preseason. The Spartans finished 20-15 and were blown out in the second round of the NCAA tournament, while the Hurricanes lost their final 10 games of the season and missed the postseason completely with a 15-17 record.

That was all last year. Michigan State coach Tom Izzo lost three starters — but last season’s promising freshman class is a year older, and there are positive signs about transfer Frankie Fidler (Omaha) and freshman Jase Richardson. Miami is hoping a large incoming class, led by five-star guard Jalil Bethea and transfers Jalen Blackmon (Stetson) and Lynn Kidd (Virginia Tech), can return the Hurricanes to the top tier of the ACC.

On the flip side, Clemson and Saint Mary’s will hope to avoid a steep drop-off. The Tigers made it to the Elite Eight last season, but PJ Hall and Joseph Girard III are gone. Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin lead the returners. The Gaels won the WCC and are 29-3 in conference play over the past two seasons, and while Randy Bennett had to replace three starters, reigning WCC Player of the Year Augustas Marciulionis is back, and Arizona transfer Paulius Murauskas should make an immediate impact.

Boise State and VCU are the preseason favorites in the Mountain West and Atlantic 10, respectively. If they don’t win their conference tournaments, they should still be in position for at-large bids. Boise State is led by returning all-league star Tyson Degenhart, with San José State transfer Alvaro Cardenas a player to watch. VCU has three players on the preseason All-Atlantic 10 first and second teams; Max Shulga‘s decision to return to the Rams after committing to Villanova was huge for Ryan Odom.

New Utah State coach Jerrod Calhoun landed seven transfers for this season while returning a pair of double-figure scorers from a team that won 28 games and reached the second round of the NCAA tournament. This will be a group to monitor in the first few months of the season.

And, we’re going out on a bit of a limb with St. Joe’s. The Hawks won at Villanova and beat Princeton last season, and took Kentucky to overtime on the road. Erik Reynolds II and Xzayvier Brown are two of the best players outside of the power conferences, and the team as a whole is ready for a step forward. — Borzello

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Tier VI: Total rebuild = ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Memphis Tigers
Michigan Wolverines
USC Trojans
TCU Horned Frogs
Washington Huskies
Vanderbilt Commodores

Even in a world where college basketball rosters change dramatically from season to season, it’s truly impossible to tell how good (or bad) any of these six teams will be in 2024-25.

First, consider the number of returning scholarship players in this tier.

Memphis: 1
Michigan: 2
USC: 1
TCU: 1
Washington: 2
Vanderbilt: 2

Four of these six also have new coaches. Only Memphis (Penny Hardaway) and TCU (Jamie Dixon) didn’t make a change there.

Hardaway faces the most pressure to win entering 2024-25, given the Tigers’ second-half collapse last season and the off-court issues that don’t seem to end. PJ Haggerty, Tyrese Hunter and Colby Rogers are a dangerous perimeter group, but the team will need to find consistency and chemistry.

Dusty May (Michigan) and Eric Musselman (USC) have the highest expectations of the first-year head coaches in this tier. May is leaning on transfers Vladislav Goldin, Danny Wolf and Roddy Gayle Jr. — all ready-made Big Ten starters. Meanwhile, Musselman built mostly via mid-major transfers, though former Xavier transfer Desmond Claude was a huge get and Northern Colorado transfer Saint Thomas will make an impact. — Borzello

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Tier VII: Backward step looms?

Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wisconsin Badgers
Dayton Flyers
Northwestern Wildcats
Nevada Wolf Pack
Virginia Cavaliers
San Diego State Aztecs
NC State Wolfpack
New Mexico Lobos
South Carolina Gamecocks
Colorado State Rams

Between the transfer portal, graduation, the NBA draft and coaching moves, this tier should probably hold off on booking any early flights for March.

The concerns with this group begin in Charlottesville, where two weeks ago Virginia coach Tony Bennett announced that the shifting landscape in college basketball had prompted him to retire at the age of 55. The transfer window has opened for 30 days if any Cavaliers players want to leave the school — and a few have already entered. Even if interim coach Ron Sanchez stabilizes the roster, a preseason shakeup could be difficult to overcome.

A fleet of talented players on the rosters of all these teams also took their talents to the next level: Dayton must move forward without Daron Holmes II, a second-team AP All-American who was the No. 22 pick by the Denver Nuggets in the 2024 NBA draft. Keisei Tominaga, who was recently signed to a G League deal, was Nebraska‘s top scorer last season. DJ Horne and DJ Burns both became pros after leading NC State to the Final Four. Northwestern‘s Boo Buie recently signed a deal with the Phoenix Suns. Former Nevada stars and all-Mountain West players Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear are playing professional basketball this year, too. San Diego State‘s Jaedon LeDee and Colorado State’s Isaiah Stevens are also making money as pros now. All are major losses for those programs.

Programs also lost players to other college programs. Lamont Butler, who played in the Final Four with San Diego State two years ago, joined Mark Pope in Kentucky. Wisconsin star A.J. Storr is now with Kansas. New Mexico‘s Jamal Mashburn Jr. (Temple) and JT Toppin (Texas Tech) left Albuquerque for other programs. Meechie Johnson, South Carolina‘s leading scorer during the 2023-24 season, is now back home and playing for Ohio State again.

The talent can’t easily be replaced — and that sets the stage for, well, a setback. — Medcalf

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Tier VIII: The (potential) comeback kids

Villanova Wildcats
Iowa Hawkeyes
Syracuse Orange
Seton Hall Pirates
Oklahoma Sooners

When Jay Wright surprised the college basketball world with his decision to retire in 2022, he tapped Kyle Neptune, his former assistant, as his successor at Villanova. Following a legend is never easy, as Neptune has learned. But after missing the NCAA tournament in his first two seasons, Nova could find its way back into the mix this year. Veteran Eric Dixon and Miami transfer Wooga Poplar have to jell to make that happen. If this team falls short, however, Neptune’s seat could be warm in March.

Fran McCaffery says he believes Iowa can follow Payton Sandfort — who removed his name from the NBA draft pool in May — after last season’s NIT bid ended a four-year run of NCAA tournament appearances.

But the others on the list might have a more challenging uphill climb.

In the case of Seton Hall, which won the 2024 NIT championship, it comes down to losing two of its best players (Dre Davis, Kadary Richmond) to the portal. But coach Shaheen Holloway’s success (including at Saint Peter’s) suggests he can get his transfer-filled team on the same page and take the Pirates back to the NCAA tournament for the first time since 2022. Oklahoma forward Jalon Moore hopes to take the Sooners from bubble talk to securing a bid for their new conference. If that doesn’t happen, Porter Moser might not avoid the hot seat talk. And Syracuse‘s Adrian Autry hopes to build on his 20-win debut as head coach and get the Orange back to the dance.

All of these teams missed the NCAA tournament last season. It remains to be seen if their ambition can get them back. — Medcalf

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Tier IX: Check back in January

Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Butler Bulldogs
Penn State Nittany Lions
Arizona State Sun Devils
LSU Tigers
SMU Mustangs
Minnesota Golden Gophers
UCF Knights
UNLV Rebels

There’s not a surefire NCAA tournament team in this tier, and only Butler came particularly close to a bid last season.

But for each of these teams, there’s a story to tell that potentially ends with them in the NCAA tournament.

If Asa Newell plays to his five-star rating and Mike White can get consistent play from Silas Demary Jr. and Blue Cain, why can’t Georgia go dancing? UCF beat Kansas, Texas, Texas Tech and TCU last season, and brings back Jaylin Sellers and Darius Johnson while adding a slew of talented transfers — why can’t the Knights put it together?

Georgia Tech has two of the best young players in the ACC in Baye Ndongo and Naithan George, and added Oklahoma transfer Javian McCollum. Butler brings back all-conference performers Pierre Brooks II and Jahmyl Telfort from a team that was in the at-large discussion until mid-February. Arizona State has two top-25 recruits in Jayden Quaintance and Joson Sanon. UNLV point guard Dedan Thomas Jr. is good enough to carry the Rebels.

You get the picture.

Maybe the most interesting team in the group for me is SMU. The Mustangs should have one of the better backcourts in the league in returner Chuck Harris, Wake Forest transfer Boopie Miller and Oregon transfer Kario Oquendo — plus, they’re huge up front. Transfers Matt Cross (UMass), Yohan Traore (UC Santa Barbara), Tibet Gorener (San José State) and international newcomer Samet Yigitoglu — once he’s cleared — give Andy Enfield a frontcourt that should be able to compete with anyone. The ACC has a very large middle-of-the-pack situation going; SMU isn’t far away from being right in the mix. — Borzello

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Tier X: Two teams we pounded the table for

Missouri Tigers

Yes, I’m OK. I know what I’m doing, and I’m not just stanning — I think that’s what the kids say — for Missouri to get clicks. The Tigers had one of the most stunning slides in college basketball in recent memory when their 2023-24 season ended with a 19-game losing streak. Only a fool would believe they could somehow bounce back a year later, and maybe even land on the NCAA tournament bubble.

Well, call me a fool, then. Because this Tigers squad is very different. Tony Perkins (Iowa), Marques Warrick (Northern Kentucky) and Mark Mitchell (Duke) should automatically change the culture of the program. Iowa State transfer Caleb Grill is healthy now after missing most of last season with a wrist injury. Tamar Bates is a returning veteran who averaged double figures a year ago.

Plus, coach Dennis Gates has a pair of top-75 recruits in the mix, too.

Plus, Gates has led two different programs to the NCAA tournament over the past four years. He’s also won at least 19 games in three consecutive seasons — prior to last year’s downturn. Yeah, Missouri is back. — Myron

Notre Dame Fighting Irish

I’m buying Notre Dame as one of the most improved teams in the country. The Fighting Irish finished 13-20 last season, but they won six of their last 10 games, including victories over Wake Forest and Clemson down the stretch. They blew out Virginia in late December. More importantly, Micah Shrewsberry will have some of the most season-to-season continuity of any team in college basketball. Six players who started at least 12 games are back, including all-league guard Markus Burton and double-figure scorer Braeden Shrewsberry. Inexperience shouldn’t be as much of an issue this season; the six freshmen and sophomores that played heavy minutes last season are a year older, and Micah Shrewsberry went out and landed three senior transfers. Two ESPN 100 recruits are also joining.

Here’s my biggest thing to watch with the Irish: Micah Shrewsberry has built a reputation as something of an offensive savant, orchestrating one of the nation’s best offenses at Penn State in 2023. ND’s offensive efficiency ranked in the mid-200s at KenPom last season — to go with a defense that ranked in the top-five of the ACC. If the defense can maintain its effectiveness, and the attack improves to become a typical Shrewsberry offense, a jump should come. — Borzello

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Tier XI: Potential March Cinderellas

McNeese Cowboys
UAB Blazers
Grand Canyon Lopes
Princeton Tigers
Charleston Cougars
Vermont Catamounts
High Point Panthers
Bradley Braves

Remember these teams as double-digit seeds come March — it wouldn’t be a surprise if three or four of these teams were popular upset picks in the NCAA tournament.

We’ve already seen Grand Canyon and Princeton win games in the dance the past two years, and most of its stars are still around. Tyon Grant-Foster is a legitimate All-American candidate after averaging 20.1 points last season, and then going for 22 against Saint Mary’s and 29 against Alabama in the NCAA tournament. Princeton went to the Sweet 16 in 2023, and while several of coach Mitch Henderson’s best players have graduated or transferred since, Caden Pierce and Xaivian Lee are both still hooping in New Jersey. The Tigers have won three straight Ivy League titles and should make it four this season.

In Will Wade’s first season at the helm, McNeese won 30 games. The Cowboys might be even better this season. They have bona fide high-major talent up and down the roster, and most of their Southland games are a mismatch; they lost just one league tilt last season, and only two of their final 13 wins came by single digits. Nonconference road trips to Alabama and Mississippi State should test them.

UAB won the AAC tournament championship last season — before taking 5-seed San Diego State to the brink in the NCAA tournament — and should compete with Memphis for the regular-season title in 2024-25. Yaxel Lendeborg is one of the best big men in the country, and coach Andy Kennedy brings back two other double-figure scorers in addition to landing four transfers who should make an immediate impact: Tyren Moore (Georgia Southern), Jaborri McGhee (JUCO), Bradley Ezewiro (Saint Louis) and Greg Gordon (Iona).

Vermont is always a threat coming out of the America East; Charleston has a new coach in Chris Mack, but is once again the CAA favorite; High Point‘s duo of Kezza Giffa and Kimani Hamilton is terrific; and Bradley is the Missouri Valley favorite — which is usually enough to scare a high-major in mid-March. — Borzello

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Tier XII: Nine deep mid-major sleepers

Santa Clara Broncos
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Oakland Golden Grizzlies
Sam Houston Bearkats
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs
UC Irvine Anteaters
Troy Trojans
East Tennessee State Buccaneers

We know you’re already looking ahead to March because you want to win your office bracket pool for the first time since 1997. It’s hard out here. If you’re a fan of any of these teams, take heart. While this group of mid-majors isn’t necessarily on everyone’s radar, we think it should be.

Each team can challenge for its respective conference crowns, and maybe sneak into the NCAA tournament conversation in March, too. And, if it get there, you won’t want your favorite power-conference team to face these teams in the opening round.

Santa Clara‘s Adama-Alpha Bal is back for a squad that has won 20 games each in four of the past five seasons. The West Coast Conference is strong at the top with Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, but the Broncos shouldn’t be overlooked.

South Dakota State lost star Zeke Mayo, who transferred to Kansas, but 6-foot-3 guard Kalen Garry could be the next standout to mature into an all-league talent. Oakland lost every key piece from the team that upset Kentucky, but Greg Kampe has won 19 or more games five times since the 2015-16 season. Louisiana Tech‘s Daniel Batcho has All-America dreams, and a shot to lead the Bulldogs to the top of the Conference USA. Taryn Todd could do the same for Arkansas State in the Sun Belt. Out west, there’s a lot of buzz about UC Irvine‘s 6-4 guard Justin Hohn: During the 2019 NCAA tournament, the Anteaters upset Kansas State in the first round. Hohn could help pull off a similar feat, provided they win the Big West tournament for the first time since that magical run five years ago.

Overall, some of these programs have work to do to climb to the top of the standings in their own leagues. But they’re certainly ones to watch as the season progresses. — Medcalf