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Let’s get one thing straight: The polls can’t tell us who is going to win the presidential election. Or which party will control Congress. Or who will win a particular state.
The race is that close and uncertain, and polls in previous election cycles have been that far off the mark.
With those caveats out of the way, let’s not ignore the consistent storylines in the polls that have defined the political forces shaping the election.
They don’t tell us who’s going to win — but we’ll know that soon enough. What the polls can do already is help explain the forces that shaped this election and how either former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could emerge victorious.
The gender gap is enormous
The latest national NBC News poll shows Trump winning men by 18 percentage points and Harris carrying women by 16 points — a combined 34-point gender gap, up from 30 points in October’s NBC News poll.
Now, not every poll reflects the same massive gender split. But many do, and it could be one of the defining storylines of this election. What’s more, the NBC News poll and others find an even more pronounced gender gap over education, with Harris winning white women with college degrees by a huge amount, compared with Trump’s strength among men and women without college degrees.
The possible election of the first female president, a broad backlash against Trump, the fall of Roe v. Wade and more have played big parts in stretching the gap in Harris’ favor among women. But equally, Trump and his intense appeals to men have been a huge story of the election.
Democrats have lost ground with Latino voters (as well as some Black voters)
While Harris and Democrats have gained ground among white women with college degrees, they’ve lost ground among Latino voters, according to this fall’s NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC Latino poll.
There has also been some slight erosion for Democrats among Black voters, especially among younger Black men.
In a close election, the result could come down to exactly how those trends play out in the electorate after months of analyzing them via polling. And if the changes are concentrated in particular states, they could also have a big say in how the Electoral College shakes out.
Voters view Trump’s presidency more positively than Biden’s
The latest NBC News poll finds President Joe Biden with a job rating of 41% approve, 58% disapprove. By comparison, Trump’s retrospective job rating in the same poll is 48% approve, 51% disapprove.
That 48% approval for Trump is higher than the NBC News poll ever found for him during his presidency.
It gets to the same dynamic as the question about who voters think would better represent change (more on that below). And it could play a decisive role, as some swing voters have said they’re willing to look past what they see as Trump character defects out of a desire to return to the economic conditions they remember in the pre-Covid years of his presidency.
Harris is more popular than Trump — but how much more popular?
Despite the higher retrospective job approval for Trump, he remains a historically unpopular figure for a presidential nominee — at 42% positive, 51% negative among all registered voters (a net rating of -9). It’s not the -33 net rating he had heading into his first presidential election in 2016, but it’s not what successful presidential candidates have typically enjoyed, either.
By comparison, when Harris became the Democrats’ presidential nominee, her popularity soared in the NBC News poll. But it has since returned to Earth and isn’t far removed from Trump’s. That would make Harris an anomaly if she wins, too.
Her rating is 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net), according to the final national NBC News poll. Other polls show slightly higher popularity numbers for Harris.
Harris leads on abortion; Trump is ahead on inflation
What have also been consistent in the polls are the issues and presidential characteristics, with Harris holding a substantial advantage on abortion, which the NBC News poll has found to be a top motivating issue for voters.
By comparison, with some exceptions, Trump has the edge over Harris on the economy and the cost of living — though the advantage is smaller than when President Joe Biden was in the race for the Democrats. And whether he was running against Biden or against Harris, Trump’s biggest issue advantage has long been on the border and controlling immigration.
While both candidates have played to their strengths, they’ve also done what they can do mitigate those weaknesses, as when Trump said during his debate with Harris that he wouldn’t sign a national abortion ban. And while Biden never ran a TV ad about the border, Harris’ campaign started airing one within weeks of her taking over the Democratic ticket.
Who is the change candidate in the race?
This might be the most important question in a contest between a sitting vice president (Harris) and an ex-president (Trump), who are both competing for voters who think the nation is on the wrong track. In the final NBC News poll, 46% of voters said Harris better represents change, compared with 41% who believe Trump does — a slight advantage for Harris.
But when they were asked what concerns them more — Harris’ continuing the same approach as Biden or Trump’s continuing the approach from his first term as president — 41% say they are more concerned about Harris’ following in Biden’s path, compared with 40% who are more worried about Trump’s repeating the actions of his term, according to the same poll.
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